The role of social media in politics has risen in the 21
century especially with what was witnessed in the Arab springs, and the Occupy
movement in Nigeria and the United States of America. It has been seen as a
moving force in political revolutions and a new era that threatens conservative
elitist politics. But as it is being celebrated as the new age democratizing
force doubts are already being raised. Occupy movement in Russia barely managed
anything when Putin was re-elected, Syria is in throes of
self-annihilation yet the world questions if the posts on twitter and Facebook
can be relied upon to justify international intervention, Kenya made a go at
occupy parliament but it was held by traffic on computer screens after being a
trending topic on twitter in the world. It begs a question if social media is a
mover of political upheaval in the middle class or if it only plays a secondary
role and gets credit for cheering on and spectating.
As Kenya approaches the 2013 elections the role of social
media is anticipated to be integral. With all serious contenders operating
social network accounts, it is seen as a battle ground of some sorts for
valuable middle class votes. But to what extent is this true?
One, recent opinion polls show that when the elections go to
the wire it will be tribal. How then will social media get votes when they have
already been consolidated by virtue of tribe? Two social media is basically a
preserve of the middle class and as witnessed in the nomination process, occupy
parliament, election date and several outrageous legislative decisions, social
media users have only protested to their computer screens and rarely come out
and walk the talk. They leave the voting to the crass of the society who vote
based on handouts and tribe with little regard to revolutionized political
agenda.
However we cannot rule out social media, Boniface Mwangi f
picha mtaani has been able to rally urban youth to protest before parliament
and deliver petitions which have rarely been implemented. The mavulture slogan
has gained impetus on social media besides gracing walls in Nairobi graffiti. With
all this in perspective, social media will play a role notably in the areas
discussed below.
Constitutional
attrition
The government has declared war on free speech which is
basically what the constitution was out to safeguard. Through Communication
Commission of Kenya the government has declared vigilance on blogs and social
media content. It went out rightly and accused individuals pronto on live
television like Makau Mutua. The government stated it will liaise with
international bodies to monitor content track IP addresses and arrest users of
social media.
This will cripple free speech and discourage discourse that
social media was supposed to help bring to fore. In as much as the government
is pursuing ‘hate speech’ it is the jury and executioner of what the extent of
posts that constitute this crime just as they did with national security during
Moi’s days of terror and we saw what good job they did at that.
Political platform
Social media will notably be a platform for political
activism and to extreme cases fundamentalism. All manner of political opinion
will be airedunbridled including sound contribution to tribal and malicious
hate speech. Middle class social activism has found voices in groups like picha
mtaani, mavulture, wanjiku revolt, kot (Kenyans on twitter) and many more.
Supporters of certain politicians have started fan pages where they specialize
in political propaganda and popularization of these politicians. Politicians
themselves have public relations machinery in social media which constantly
address issues in their demeanor as they arise and build an image for
themselves.
But as I have argued ab initio this will marginally woo voters
who already have fixed mind. Kenyans have not yet ostracized tribalism. Social
media users will not give much thought to political discourse in social media
and vote like the crass of the society based on tribe and popularity. Issue
based politicians like Martha Karua have been subjectedto mainstream media
blackout as would be expected alternative media like the social media to
provide this platform it turns out not. Social media discussions tend to focus
on the prominent contenders like Raila and Uhuru and the platform is as biased
as mainstream media. Thus social media will play along with little contribution
in terms of changing the dynamics of the political arena but just being another
cat in the bag.
News delivery in real
time
The biggest contribution of social media will be spread of
information. People will tally results in real time. Where in past elections
people heavily relied on mainstream media this time people will rely on social
media with results being shared across the country.
This will cut both ways in terms of impact. It will serve to
enable Kenyans know their verdict pronto but it might also flare up emotions if
things were to go to the dogs like the 2007 polls. Mainstream media are guided
by ethics and gatekeeping and the government banned live broadcasts during 2007
posts poll chaos, this does not apply to social media. Raw unedited footage
will be posted on you tube, photos of whatever is happening on the ground
shared on twitter and Facebook for the world to see. This might fan the
violence. However it will also be used as it is being used to spread peace
messages and organize vigilance for democracy.
Discourse and reality
for 2017
Social media will play an important role in determining
future elections in Kenya. It is from mistakes that will be made this election
(like middle class failing to vote or impact change) that discourse on social
media will jump off computer screens into action. It is inherent to note that social
media did not start the Arab Spring but Bouazizi’s self-emollition and the fact
that Algerians were ready for change. Social media will not change the dynamics
of Kenyan politics but Kenyans will change and social media will tag along
Justas it is tagging along as we make political mistake.
