African Union Peace and Security summit meeting in Nairobi came
to a stark realization on the threat of terrorism posed by inter-border
loopholes, but is it too late?
While the meeting toyed with the idea of setting up a fund
with Kenya’s President Kenyatta admitting that ‘no single state can tackle this
threat alone and it is particularly worrying in Africa today that terrorist
organizations have grown both in terms of number and capability’.
Even Spy chiefs and the police who met last week are
thinking of crafting a regional approach that might craft cross border
partnerships and legislations, it begs to understand whether this counter move
is not only anticipated by the terrorists and impractical in the dynamics that
are changing by the day.
Why I think both are the case are two incidents that
preceded this meeting but were never put in context at the summit.
One is the declaration of a Caliphate on all territories
under the Boko Haram by Abbubakr Shekau. While it might be seen as an imitation
of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdai’s Islamic State Caliph, the creation of the state even
if hysterical at most is a sure effort at blurring borders of the current
countries as we know them.
It is not unimaginable especially for the ‘horn of Africa’
where Al Sahab operate across a border of ethnic Somali to declare make a
similar move. Disenfranchised and already branded terrorist by virtue of their
identity and religion it is also unsurprising that such a move to create a state
will be appealing to Al Shabab sympathizers.
If such states pop up than it will be hard to see how a
regional force will effectively battle the insurgents without legitimizing the
states and the operational dynamics on territorial integrity plus a mish mash
of military ranks will facilitate such a franchise.
Another problem is the discovery of a Laptop in a village in
the Syrian province of Idlib from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS),
which have since rebranded themselves as the Islamic State during an attack in
January.
The Laptop believed to be of a Tunisian Named Muhamed S. a
chemist student, contained 19 page document in Arabic on how to develop
biological weapons including Ebola and weaponize bubonic plague from infected
animal.
While the discovery of a dusty laptop in a remote village in
Syria is not a doomsday indicator since even experts believe weaponizing the
Ebola virus is too complex and unlikely even in sophisticated laboratories, the
issue should not be let out of context.
This even as the Philippines defense department confirmed that
it will pull out more than 100 troops from a UN peace-keeping mission Liberia
amid concerns over the Ebola virus. What this might result in is a withdrawal
of troops in a domino effect that will effectively counter any intergovernmental
military action as long as the virus exists.
If and whether to keep populations safe from the virus that
has already claimed 1,400 lives with a further 2,600 suspected or confirmed
cases, countries seal of area around these Caliphs then they can only morph and
gain legitimacy and in effect counter any international help thanks to the Philippines.
The terrorist know little come out of gatherings like this
Summits than statements of intent and if any action a bureaucracy that will see
it take time. And they will be ready by the time any sound action is actually
taken.
It has taken long enough to realize that we need cross
border warfare, and even then military procedure still dictated that Cameroonian
soldiers disarm the hapless Nigerian outfit that was fleeing Shekau only
recently.